WILL THERE BE A NEW WAR IN BOSNIA?

(Original text: Published in May 16, 2016)

Recent developments in Balkans, like admission of Kosovo first to UEFA and to FIFA, re-opening of Ferhadija Mosque in Banja Luka, the capital city of the Serbian entity, which was demolished during the Bosnian War and lastly the demonstrations in Banja Luka by March 14, 2016 were all enough to warm up Bosnian politics. Some talk about an armed conflict or even a new war likely to happen in Bosnia? How realistic is this?

The rise of the ultra-right politics was the focus of the previous article. One of the points that we took attention was the fact that, those political parties who were responsible from the breakup of Yugoslavia are again currently holding the power in ex-Yugoslav republics. The main actors of the nationalist monsters are again in the power. Even Seselj, from whom even Milosevic was discontent of his extreme “practices” is again in the Serbian parliament

Like a nightmare! Those who transformed Yugoslavia into a blood lake are governing the countries again.

Moreover, the recent developments in May 2016 made Bosnia to be more in political tension.

If it winds in Kosovo, Bosnia catches cold. It was in Kosovo where the first crisis in Yugoslavia occurred, and followed by devastation of Bosnia. Since some time Bosnian Serb Republic (Republika Srpska – RS) claims independency referring to the independency of Kosovo. In May 2016, despite 24 votes against, with 28 votes Kosovo became member of UEFA and followed by membership to FIFA after a meeting in Mexico in May 13 where membership of Gibraltar was also confirmed.

This was like a cold shower for Serbia who still defines Kosovo as part of Serbia. However, having no other political vision than EU membership, Serbia has not other choice than accepting the bitter reality. Yet, last week (May 2016) the deputy director of European Parliament and Kosovo Reporter Ulrike Lunacek warned once Serbia again that Serbia cannot be member of EU without recognition of Kosovo as a sovereign state.

Serbia is politically locked in that sense, but the naughty brother, RS was not late to use this opportunity and claimed that if UEFA and FIFA recognizes Kosovo, than they have to accept membership of RS as well. Indeed, this is not so easy, since Dayton Peace Accord does not allow such a thing.

Two weeks ago (May 2016) Bosnia probably faced with one of the biggest political crisis since the end of the war.

Ferhadija Mosque in Banja Luka (capital city of RS), built in Ottoman Era and being demolished with 16 more mosques at May 6-7, 1993 despite being under protection of UNESCO, was restored and re-opened in May 7, 2016. When the reconstruction of the mosque have started in 2001, the start-up ceremony was attacked by about a thousand Cetniks (Serbian nationalists) firing the vehicles around and besieged the building of Bosnian Islamic Union where 250 Bosnian Muslims as well as Jacques Klein, the representative of UN in Bosnia and ambassadors of England, Sweden and Pakistan were also inside. One Bosnian Muslim was killed and 30 people were injured.

Nothing feared happened in May 7, 2016 in the opening ceremony of Ferhadija Mosque where highest security measures were taken and EUFOR battalions were ready to involve in a possible conflict.

This is partly due to the fact that Serbian nationalists have a bit of trouble nowadays. Since the bully tempered RS president Milorad Dodik's SNSD lost 2014 elections, RS is in a serious political crisis. There were two demonstrations last Sunday in Banja Luka organized by Dodik's supporters and opponents. Until the elections in October 2016, it is expected that the political tension will be tightened and may have serious implications in a country stuck into corruption and poverty.

Since the founder of RS; Radovan Karadzic is subjected as committing genocide in Bosnia, the legitimacy of RS as a state founded on genocide, is more under question. No doubt that this issue is well exploited by Bosnian Muslim and Bosnian Croat politicians who cannot offer anything to their people than a corrupted state and poor citizens. That is what they do the best for 20 years.

All those events and facts that are mentioned above brings one question: Can there be a war in Bosnia as a result of all of those political crises? The Western political analysts are very likely to speak about war in any part of the world. However, the dynamics of contemporary Bosnia is not the same as it was 20 years ago. Those nationalist leaders who took advantage of the war, know very well that in case of a war, they can easily lose their positions. Moreover, Bosnia with a disfunctional state very far away of being a threat to imperialism. Thus, a change in status quo in Bosnia is not favoured by imperialism. In addition to that, neither Croatia, who is just accepted in EU would risk to arm Bosnian Croats, nor Serbia who is just domesticated on the path to EU would prefer to risk the journey to EU by falling into the adventure of “Greater Serbia“. Bosnian Muslim politicians on the other side are very much busy with exploiting the limited resources of the country.

If a war in Bosnia will happen, this might be a war against all of those blood sucking current politicians!